What do you need to know?

Coronaviruses can travel only about six feet from the infected person. It’s unknown how long they live on surfaces. Some other viruses, like measles, can travel up to 100 feet and stay alive on surfaces for hours.


Source: NY Times




Source: Vox


Source: Vox

















Source: Our World in Data

In Italy, males get more infected than females



Source: Italian ISS


#FlattenTheCurve

Governments will not be able to minimise both deaths from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and the economic impact of viral spread. Keeping mortality as low as possible will be the highest priority for individuals; hence governments must put in place measures to ameliorate the inevitable economic downturn.

Source: The Lancet

Source: NY Times
Source: NY Times

How does it work?

A simple tree diagram shows how limiting contacts early might prevent many infections.
If each infected person spreads the coronavirus to two other people, the chain of infections would grow exponentially.
Avoiding even one social transmission early on in the chain could significantly reduce the number of infections.
Source: NY Times

Financial Times charts





Ongoing Research

Temporal variation in transmission during the COVID-19 outbreak


Source: Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine

Temporal variation in transmission during the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy


Source: Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine

Publications

What did we learn so far?

We were able to predict to some extent how SARS-CoV-2 spread

Source: Brockmann Lab

Estimates indicate an ability of 36% to detect imported cases in countries outside China. This means that approximately 6 imported cases out of 10 have gone undetected

Source: Epicx lab

This coronavirus is able to survive in aerosols and on surfaces for hours.

Source: NEJM

Still the problem is that due to their greater numbers, undocumented infections were the infection source for 79% of documented cases. These findings explain the rapid geographic spread of SARS-CoV2 and indicate containment of this virus will be particularly challenging.

Source: Science

Good news: containment works.

Source: arXiv

Modeling results also indicate that sustained 90% travel restrictions to and from Mainland China only modestly affect the epidemic trajectory unless combined with a 50% or higher reduction of transmission in the community

Source: Science

Reducing the number of contacts, one of the measures to achieve social distancing, is key.

Source: medRxiv

Bad news: fake news/hoax, conspiracy theories and junk science are overwhelming social media, like Twitter.

Source: Fondazione Bruno Kessler

Egypt, Algeria, South Africa estimated to be at highest risk in Africa, but have most prepared health systems and are least vulnerable. Nigeria, Ethiopia, Sudan, Angola, Tanzania, Ghana, and Kenya are at lower risk of importing cases, but are less prepared and more vulnerable.

Source: The Lancet

A reconstruction of the spread dynamics from the very beginning has been provided by NY Times in this data story:

Source: NY Times

Dedicated collections

Online Dashboards

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Epidemiology
World/single countries
Johns Hopkins University

Epidemiology
World

Epidemiology
Italy
Protezione Civile

Epidemiology
World/USA

Epidemiology
Trentino (Italy)
Fondazione Bruno Kessler and APSS

Misinformation/Infodemics
World/single countries
Fondazione Bruno Kessler

Epidemiology
Simulator

Epidemiology
Simulator

Epidemiology
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Epidemiology
Simulator

Epidemiology
Data viz

Epidemiology
Our World in Data
Data viz
Scroll and click on the tweet to read in Twitter